In 2013, the air conditioning market will show a trend of high opening and low moving

After the industry shrank significantly in 2012, the air conditioning market finally turned "cloudy" in the first quarter of 2013. According to the data of Zhongyikang, from January to March, the retail volume and retail sales of air conditioners increased by 17.1% and 21.44% respectively year on year. At the same time, the brand pattern continues to show the development trend of "inward moving and outward retreating", in which the retail volume and retail market share of domestic brands have reached 85.64% and 84.07% respectively. With the implementation of the new national standard of the air conditioning industry in the second half of the year, the industry concentration is expected to further improve. At the same time, the three-dimensional and diversified exploration of air conditioning channels represented by online sales has begun to take shape. It is estimated that in 2013, the overall air conditioning market in China will show a trend of high opening and low opening. The main reasons for the growth of the air conditioning market in the first quarter were the low base in the same period of last year, the implementation of energy-saving subsidies in the second half of 2012, and the short-term recovery of the real estate market. At the same time, it should also be noted that the air-conditioning market is affected by the withdrawal of the policy and the coming of the new national standard, which weakens the effectiveness of the stimulating factors for the substantial growth of the market. At the same time, the implementation of the five detailed rules of the new country will also drive the real estate market to fluctuate. Therefore, he believes that, on the whole, the air conditioning market in 2013 will show a trend of high opening and low moving. At the same time, in addition to the small year-on-year growth of the overall market, the market change of the air conditioning industry is also reflected in two aspects: first, the enterprise inventory has been digested; Second, the potential of the third and fourth tier markets is still large. According to the data of Zhongyikang, the performance of air conditioners in all levels of markets from January to March was better than that of last year. Among them, the retail volume and retail sales in the tertiary market increased by 13.25% and 18.92% year on year, while the retail volume and retail sales in the tertiary market increased by 15.61% and 21.87% year on year. Although the overall growth of the air conditioning market in 2013 is no longer as rapid as that in previous years, rigid demand and replacement demand still exist, and the overall capacity of the air conditioning market will continue to be close to 50 million units. In general, the factors influencing the trend of the air conditioning market in 2013 mainly include the following aspects: First, the policy trend. At the end of 2012, the phased real estate policy has warmed up, which is conducive to the recovery of the household appliance market in 2013 in the short term. At the same time, during the implementation of stimulus policies such as "energy conservation and benefiting the people", they have played a significant role in promoting the structural optimization of the air conditioning industry, which will have a certain impact on the air conditioning market in the first half of 2013. The new national standard for air conditioning industry implemented in the middle of this year will also have a profound impact on the household air conditioning market in 2013 and beyond. Second, climate change. In April 2013, the southern region was repeatedly affected by severe convective weather, such as thunderstorms, strong winds, hail, etc., and the air conditioning market showed a bleak year-on-year performance. In addition to the above factors, Weijia believes that, in the long run, the overall demand affecting China's air conditioning market still exists. Part of this demand comes from the demand for rigid household appliances for housing brought about by the baby boom in the 1980s, and the other part is the demand for upgrading the market in air-conditioned cities. In addition, the ownership of 22 sets of air-conditioning products in the rural market is another potential growth point of the household air-conditioning market in the future.